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February 6, 2012

4% there we go. 5% here we come.

You heard that right…5%. The days of 4% – 4.25% are over. Get ready to welcome the 5′s after the new year. I could try to pretend that I understand the workings of the bond market or how MBS (mortgage backed securities) dictate loan pricing but I won’t. I’m here to inform you that currently a 30 year loan is around 4.83% and it’s not going back below 4.5%. I’m also providing my opinion of where the rates are headed.

What do I think is driving this rate hikes? Thanks for asking…because the gloom is lifting. That feeling of dread I’ve lived with for last three years isn’t eating at my stomach lining quite so much. (Pretty scientific, huh?) It’s a hunch based upon a few years of experience. My ESP predicts a an old friend is going to settle in around the entire country….optimism. By the time spring is over we will look back and realize this fourth quarter of 2010 was the bottom.

How are my antenna hot wired to monetary policy? An excellent question….if I’m sensing a positive uptick then I KNOW the banks are sure of it. Once they are convinced that consumer confidence is growing they are going to want to cash in. The best way is to raise rates a little at a time. The last 30 days was fast but now there will be a lull before the next bump. As long as small increases don’t choke the recovery and stall the engine, mortgage lenders will keep going….I estimate summer of 2011 will reflect an average of 5.25% for a 30-year mortgage loan.

Why am I still smiling? Very observant of you…because I know that 5.25% money is STILL A FANTASTIC DEAL!!! I’ve been around long enough to know that 7% money is not the end of the world. If the economy is humming, 8% money won’t stop borrowers. So, move, jump, pull the trigger, make offers and get going while prices are dirt cheap! What a time to buy!!! Don’t let the rate of borrowing be your excuse to miss the best real estate values since 2004.

I’m going to buy and so should you!

4.5% is the new 6.0% 30-year fixed mortgage

For years working behind the scenes with real estate agents and mortgage lenders there is no doubt more hand written information about “real estate” by real estate agents than there is by lenders.  For the most part, mortgage lenders just don’t market to the general public.  For the most part, the general public uses a mortgage lender based on the referrals from real estate agents.  For every part, as being someone who accepts the responsibility in entrusting golden rule-style business based on the reputation of your word, it’s important to refer the general public to someone you yourself have great admiration for.  lol  That’s right.  I have a bromance.  I’ve never known this guy to not have a genuine interest in doing the right thing when it comes to just being a good person.

continue, or click here to spare yourself from more of a salty intro.

The reason I start with such a dramatic intro is because I think it’s very cool to get a hand written uncanned mortgage lender market update type information to share on our site after asking, “After 14-years of being a lender, if you could give me anything to say about mortgage, right now, after all this, what would you say?”

The title of the email when he shot it over was, “4.5% Is The New 6.0% 30yr Fixed Mortgage.”

Naturally, I loved the sticky title.  It made me want to click.  But, before I actually read it, I emailed back asking if he was sure this is what he wanted to say.  We’ve all had a few surprises over the last couple years haven’t we?  In one way or another, these surprises have affected each and every one of us whether it’s directly, or indirectly with a loved one.  I mean nobody can really claim that they saw such a life changing impact on our lives other than shouts us locals have seen from Tim Ellis, who I think was an award winner for the best Seattle real estate blog.

No matter what, I’m flattered that this guy took the time to say something that supports what we love to do and that is hand over keys!  Gene is saying don’t be shy, go ahead and buy.  But, not necessarily because interest rates are low, but I think what he’s saying by sending this as his first contribution is, rates are good.

Mortgages are at an all time low historically despite the housing crisis.  The reason for this low is due to our weak economy and the Fed supporting low rates to help spur the housing market out of it’s crisis.  For the longest time, 6.0% was the target rate of choice.  I recall in 2001 when the 30yr Fixed Rate reached 5.75% for one summer day, it was a moment to be remembered.  In 2009, 5.25% was all the rage and yet a very low percentage of borrowers could actually qualify for a mortgage due to stringent Underwriting guidelines and decreased real estate values.  Now in 2010, there are many more that can qualify at a lower payment at 4.5% for purchases and for those looking to refinance despite the decline in home values.

It is not uncommon to obtain a 4.5% 30yr Fixed Refinance at NO COST, if you have decent credit and equity in your home.  There are new programs that are accommodating higher LTV’s (Loan To Value) to relieve the drop in real estate values.  The Fed announced recently that they will not be changing rates in the near future.  This does not necessarily mean that rates will get lower because you have to consider that with rates this low, it is not as profitable for banks to be lending at this rate.  This seems to be the floor for now with seemingly more pressure to rise as we move towards the end of the year.  Currently, lenders are giving great incentives for homeowners to refinance at this low rate which is the main reason why you can obtain a No Cost Refi from very reliable sources.

The Mortgage Market is starting to become flooded with Refinances at these low rates which can mean upward pressure to raise rates as a matter of supply and demand.  If you are in the market to purchase a home or have a higher interest rate mortgage, I recommend taking advantage of this market while you can it’s not a bad time.

Gene: “at NO COST, if you have decent credit and equity in your home”

What if that isn’t you?


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